Is Tim Tebow about to revolutionize the NFL?

What do Tim Tebow and Steph Curry have in common?

Sports has seen very few athletes with the kind of polarization Tim Tebow has. He seems to be either loved or hated, with very few people falling in between. For better or worse, it doesn't look like he will ever get a chance to prove his ability as a starting quarterback in the NFL. However, I think Tebow has the potential to revolutionize the entire league like Steph Curry did for the NBA. Let me explain.

Extra point rule changes

Most of this stems from the NFL moving the extra point kick back from the 2-yard line. Before this rule change, whether you were going for 2, or just kicking the extra point, you snapped the ball from the 2-yard line. This allowed for the ability for fake kicks to try and get 2 points, or an extremely low chance of missing the extra point when you do kick it.

Even with moving the kick back, the conversion rate is still pretty high. However, you need to declare whether you are kicking the extra point or going for 2. This almost completely removes the chance of fake kicks in order to go for 2, or the possibility of doing anything tricky after scoring a touchdown.

3 points are more than 2 points

Now, why would I have the audacity to compare Tim Tebow, a quarterback who had 1 good year at quarterback (or 1 bad year depending on how you look at it), to Steph Curry, a multi-time NBA Champion, and MVP?

Steph Curry came into the league as a promising talent, but with his relatively short stature, and non-physically dominating build, he was expected to be the kind of player that can help elevate surrounding players. Somewhat like a Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, or John Stockton. 

As we all know now, something that was overlooked was his incredible ability to shoot the 3. When the warriors decided to focus their team around shooting 3 pointers, they revolutionized the way the game was played. Using the simple understanding that 3 points are more than 2 points, if you could get your shooting percentage high enough, the increased number of points scored would outpace the lower overall shooting percentage.

This new way to play the game has changed some of the fundamental needs to have a successful NBA franchise. A dominating big man, such as Shaq or Kareem, used to be the most highly touted sure thing for success. However, this new focus on 3-pointers almost ended the career of Dwight Howard, who looked to be fitting into the dominating big man mold until this sudden change of events.

2 points are more than 1 point

So how could Tim Tebow revolutionize the NFL? By being a full-time 2-point conversion quarterback. If this sounds crazy, hear me out.

We all know that NFL teams have a spot for a dedicated punter and a dedicated kicker. Some even have separate kickers for field goals and kickoffs. Those positions are built into the game, and there are players that focus only on that one aspect of football.

Back in the day, kickers and punters were often just other position players that showed an aptitude for those skills. They played another position primarily, but would do the kicking and/or punting when it was time.

As time moved forward, teams would recognize how beneficial it was to have players that were specifically good at punting and kicking, even if they weren’t able to play any other position on the field. They could now count on field goals for 3 points, get consistent extra points, or pin the other team deep on their side of the field when they were forced to punt.

How many games can you think of off the top of your head that came down to a field goal or was won by 1 or 2 points? Any team that has had a bad kicker at one point understands the need for a good kicker.

But, in the same way that 3 points are more than 2 points in the NBA, what if you always went for 2 point conversions in the NFL? People go for 2 point conversions all the time, but normally only when they need to. It could be from a previously missed extra point, trying to give yourself some sort of advantage, or straight up to win the game.

Right now, going for 2 is like a coin flip, while kicking the extra point is more like a foul shot. A good foul shot shooter can hit over 90% of their attempts. But a coin flip is still a coin flip. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And in the NFL, missing out on that 1 point can sometimes cost you the game.

So what conversion rate would make it worth your while to ALWAYS go for 2 points. In my estimation, probably 2 out of 3, or 66.6% of the time. If you can get a 2 point conversion at that rate, it means for every game where you score at least 3 touchdowns, you will normally have 1 more point. That could be huge.

Also, think about if your team scores first, and then gets a 2 point conversion. Now, the other team has to decide whether to go for 2 or not when they score. If you have built your team around the 2 point conversion, and the other team did not, with all other things being equal, you will normally have more points at the end of the game. It’s the same for an NBA team that tries to shoot more 3 pointers to keep up with a team that is making more 3 pointers. If one team is built to shoot the 3, and the other is not, then the team built for it will normally win that contest.

So…Tim Tebow?

Yes, Tim Tebow. Can you think of a harder player to stop when on the 2 yard line? I cannot.

But he’s not accurate enough.

He is plenty accurate for the goal line.

But he is too bulky to have a quick release.

Being bulky is a bonus when that close to the goal line. I would put my money on Tebow vs. almost any safety in the league for 2 yards.

But the read option and wildcat aren’t successful in the NFL. 

You don’t need a first down, you need 2 yards.

But he’s most comfortable in shotgun, and you should never run shotgun at the goal line.

Why not? Can he get 2 yards 66.6% of the time?

But what if you have a power back? Wouldn’t you rather run it?

So hand it off as a run-option. 

Why would you pay good money to a player that only gets in the game a handful of times?

Sometimes punters don’t play at all in a game.

But he won’t be able to learn the whole playbook as a quarterback if he is also playing other positions.

Well, 1) he doesn’t have to play other positions, just like a punter doesn’t play multiple positions, and 2) he doesn’t have to learn a bunch of plays. Just 1 really good one.

If teams know you’re doing this, they will just plan against it.

Ok hear out this one scenario that I, not an offensive coordinator, came up with:
Tebow is in shotgun, power back on one side, receiving back on the other, two tight ends, and one slot receiver. 

Hike!

First, read-option to the power back going up the middle. If Tebow sees an opening, hand it off, if not keep it. If Tebow sees a different opening on the inside, take it. If not, roll out with your receiving back. Receiving back stays behind you for a toss-option. If a spot opens up, take it in, if they go to tackle you, and your option back is free, toss it. Your tight end and slot receiver are running some sort of crossing route or something. If you see one of them open, throw it to them. If the play breaks down completely, improvise. 

Ok, now do all that in the other direction.

Watching Tebow through the 2011 season, and assuming he can get back up to a form close to that for a single style of play, it would be hard to imagine him and the rest of the team getting stopped 50% of the time.

Sure that play might be figured out quickly by good teams. But what about throwing in trick plays, direct snaps, under-center QB sneaks, under-center passing/running plays, etc. Tebow is plenty adept to learn a full, goal-line offense.

Tebow is a uniquely gifted athlete. He may not be considered “elite” in any one given physical area, but if you combine the attributes of a backup quarterback, backup power running back, experienced quarterback, experienced option player, and good improviser, that’s a hard player to stop for 2 yards. 

You think the entire league would change for 1 player?

I'm not saying this will work. I’m not even saying they will try it. But if it’s going to happen, this is the time. He is coming back to play for his college coach, Urban Meyer, who may be the only person in the world who knows how to best use Tebow’s talents. He is playing for a team that was the WORST team in the league last year, so expectations are quite low. He is playing for his hometown team in the state where he brought home 2 national championships while in college. The fan base already loves Tebow, so there would likely be fan support for getting him in the game. You can have Tebow focus on this to make sure there is no starting quarterback controversy. You don’t need to rebuild your entire offense. You just need to figure out a good, simple, 2-yard offense.

You still have the option to kick the extra point if the situation calls for it, and you still need a kicker for field goals and kickoff. Tebow could slot in as like a 3rd string QB in case your first two get hurt, and he can go ahead and play tight end in certain packages where it makes sense. He doesn’t even have to be a starting tight end. 

I mean, if this worked, he wouldn’t need to play any other position at all. The “2 yard QB” could become a specialized position in the same way that a kicker or punter is, and would be perfect for those athletes that are well-rounded but not “elite” in any single category. 

Not only that, you could expand that into ANY short-yardage situation. What if you could consistently convert 66.6% of 4th and 1 or 4th and 2 situations? How many more times would you go for it? Not only could you maybe get an extra 1 or 2 points per game, but you could also potentially “steal” an extra 1 or 2 possessions where you otherwise would have had to punt.

Yes, this will fail sometimes. But as long as used intelligently, and successful at a high enough rate, it should be an overall benefit. 

You have to fully commit to the idea

For this to be successful, it needs full buy-in. You need to ALWAYS GO FOR 2 unless you are at the end of the game, and there is no benefit to scoring 2 points as opposed to 1 point. As soon as you just pick and choose when to go for it, you ruin the whole point of the conversion rate. 

I’ve had this thought for Tim Tebow as soon as the new extra point rules went into effect, and thought maybe the Patriots were going to try doing that when they brought in Tebow near the end of his first run through the NFL. But now he is back in the league with maybe the only set of circumstances that might be able to pull this off.

Will they do it? Only time will tell. After all, these are merely theories.